Population in Homeland Security Risk Applications
Population is an extremely valuable part of the overall risk picture and represents 40% of DHS’ homeland security grant risk formula. Population is relevant for any given scenario and is a valuable component of local homeland security capabilities including public warnings, evacuations, sheltering, injuries, and fatalities. Identifying a defensible number and demographic profile (e.g. age, gender, poverty) of people within a given area is vital to planning and responding based on the risk to a given area’s population.
The consequences of certain threat types are much more population-centric than asset-centric. For example, an earthquake can cause higher rates of fatality, hospitalization, sheltering, and long-term social welfare than an IED which is immediate and typically on a smaller-scale. Local jurisdictions need to approach population risk differently for each. Furthermore, some threat types affect certain population types much differently than others. For example, hurricanes affect socially vulnerable populations more than other people. Identifying these people prior to landfall is valuable to emergency planning. According to Census data, the most commonly used source for population, no one lives in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. However, on September 11th 2,729 people died in these buildings. As this example illustrates, an in-depth understanding of dynamic population is vital to homeland security and emergency management. This paper outlines Digital Sandbox’s approach to building a unique and defensible estimation of population and key demographic variables.