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The Atlantic basin “is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year,” according to a pre-season outlook issued today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Beginning June 1st and running through November 30th, the Atlantic hurricane season generates much attention because of its potential for destruction along the heavily populated and built-up coastal areas of the eastern and southern U.S.

NOAA has a very good record of accurately predicting the number and magnitude of storms in the Atlantic basin, as it did last year. (It does not attempt to predict in advance the landfall locations or paths of the storms, as these are “dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches.”)

In its latest seasonal outlook, NOAA predicts the following ranges:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

“Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood,” NOAA says, “and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.”

Stay tuned as well for the mid-season updates to this forecast.

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